Lions vs Steelers: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

The Detroit Lions will play their final home game of the season in Week 16, hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday afternoon.

There is still some mathemagical path for the Lions (8-6) to make the postseason even if they lose to the Steelers (also 8-6), but the only realistic way to keep the playoff dream alive is to win. Meanwhile, the Steelers have a viable playoff path even if they lose their next two games, so long as they complete the sweep of the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18.

That urgency should matter. It needs to matter for Detroit and for Dan Campbell’s Lions.

Why I think the Lions will win

The Lions carry a number of favorable Xs vs Os advantages in this matchup. Foremost is Detroit’s offensive ability to generate big plays in the run game. Jahmyr Gibbs is a dynamic threat inside ot outside, and David Montgomery has proven to be a very effective grinder as well. After a week of rough sledding against a Rams defense that is one of the best at bottling up explosive runs, Sonic and Knuckles get a reprieve against a Steelers defense that has allowed more 10+ yard carries than all but 3 other teams.

The Steelers will be without elite pass rusher T.J. Watt and also his primary reserve, Nick Herbig. That’s a nice reprieve, or rather it should be a nice one, for a Lions offensive line that has struggled with inconsistency and youthful inexperience. Pittsburgh isn’t devoid of some talent up front, but losing Watt–to a lung injury suffered at the team’s training facility–is their version of Detroit losing Aidan Hutchinson and Marcus Davenport a year ago. Herbig doesn’t get a lot of press but he’s a quality player, with 6.5 sacks (2nd on the team) and a team-high 12 TFLs in the run game.

That only enhances Detroit’s ability to attack with the play-action passing game. Jared Goff got some opportunities against the Rams to deliver deeper throws, and it worked enough that it’s a confidence-building experience to build off against Pittsburgh. The Steelers value toughness in man coverage over speed on the outside, which could mean a big game for speedy Jameson Williams upcoming. He could even draw an illegal contact or defensive holding penalty or two in this one.

Aaron Rodgers is still dangerous at quarterback, but the 42-year-old doesn’t have the deep ball anymore. No QB averages less air yards per target than Rodgers and his 5.6 average. By way of comparison, Goff is at 6.9. Pittsburgh’s offense is focused on the quick, short passing game, not the big play. Detroit surrenders far too many big plays, but they are not an easy pass defense to nickel-dime against. The coverage issues with the replacement safeties are mitigated against Pittsburgh, as are the inconsistent drop depth from LBs Derrick Barnes and Jack Campbell. As long as the Lions tackle well, and they still lead the NFL in fewest missed tackles per PFF, they can handle this Steelers offense–at least enough to allow Goff & Co. to put up more points.

What concerns me about the Steelers

Mike Tomlin coaching Aaron Rodgers in a big game is not something anyone should take for granted. Pittsburgh has been sporadically awesome this season, and we’ve all seen how inconsistent teams have found ways to play their best against the Lions–especially in Detroit.

Pittsburgh also utilizes multiple tight ends in both the run and pass game, something the Rams did very well to exploit Detroit’s defense. Hopefully, the Lions linebackers and replacement safeties have some muscle memory from last week’s abysmal showing against L.A.’s 13 personnel, but it’s asking a lot of the group.

On offense, Detroit’s lack of tight ends has become more of an issue of late. While Shane Zylstra returned from a long-term injury, he’s not the same caliber of Sam LaPorta or even Brock Wright. The Rams attacked the Lions TEs as blockers and the Steelers can and will do the same. Their cornerbacks are better run defenders, too–which could be an issue for Jahmyr Gibbs getting bottled up again.

The Lions might not have Graham Glasgow (knee) at center, and they also might be without his normal backup, Trystan Colon (wrist). Glasgow has been underwhelming but generally capable, better in pass protection. Colon was brutal at left guard after the first three drives in L.A. and hasn’t seen much time at center. At least left guard Christian Mahogany is back and healthy, and that should help the run game.

 

Final score prediction

The Lions now need more help than before after Chicago’s latest late-game miracle comeback win over Green Bay, but they must make their own luck and take care of business on their own, too. I expect that from Dan Campbell’s group in the final game at Ford Field this year.

Lions 33, Steelers 24

More From The Detroit Lions Podcast