One Year Ago, the Mocks Missed
Two weeks from the 2026 NFL Draft, the Detroit Lions Podcast rewinds to last spring. The mock draft pulse around Detroit told one story. The actual first round told another. The board buzzed with edge rushers and tackles. Derek Horton from Oregon surfaced. Kelvin Banks and Grey Campbell showed up. Donovan Esaraku led the projections to pick 28. Jihad Campbell appeared in multiple runs. Nick Skorton and Michael Williams stayed popular among the edge crowd.
The problem was fit. Linebacker was not the urgent need some insisted it was. Jack Campbell was rising into an all‑pro level performer. Alex Anzalone held the room and covered space. Depth existed until Malcolm Rodriguez’s injury later in the year. The frenzy still pushed front‑seven names, mostly edges, into the Lions slot because it felt safe.
The Pick Few Saw Coming
The Detroit Lions took Tylek Williams, defensive tackle from Ohio State, in the first round. Almost no mock two weeks out had that connection. One social post on March 10, 2025, put Williams as a first‑round expectation after the combine. Then the projection shifted. Confidence wavered. Two days before the draft, a strong league voice said Williams would be the pick. That tip got ignored. The card in Detroit matched the early combine read, not the late‑cycle noise.
The lesson is clear. Information gathered at the NFL combine tends to hold up. Pro days, public trackers, and the mock churn can blur the picture. The 2025 cycle did exactly that. It pushed a wave of edges and a linebacker into focus while the Detroit Lions quietly lined up a disruptive defensive tackle.
The 2026 Takeaway
As the 2026 NFL Draft approaches, remember what actually aligned with the pick a year ago. Combine intel mattered. Need still mattered. The perception that Brad Holmes refuses to draft for need gets overstated. The stronger takeaway is more precise. He does not force edge early if the board and role do not match value.
Expect heavy speculation again. You will see more edges mocked to Detroit. You will see another linebacker or two. That happened last year with Donovan Esaraku, Jihad Campbell, Nick Skorton, and Michael Williams cycling through the slot. The room, the roles, and the Lions priorities will decide, not the volume of projections.
Last spring offered a blunt reminder. The earliest accurate breadcrumb came out of Indianapolis. It pointed to Tylek Williams and interior disruption. The late noise washed it out. Detroit still made the right call. Keep that framework close as the clock ticks toward the 2026 first round.
#detroitlions #lions #detroitlionspodcast #tylekwilliams #nfldraft #mockdrafts #defensivetackle #combineintel #donovanesaraku #jihadcampbell #jackcampbell #alexanzalone #malcolmrodriguez #edgerusher #nickskorton #michaelwilliams #bradholmes
Full episode transcript
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Speaker 2: Hey, everyone. Jeff Risen here with your daily DLP. It is Wednesday, April 8. We're getting very close to the twenty twenty six NFL draft. We're a little over two weeks out. And I thought I would take the opportunity today, since we're looking at a lot of mock drafts, to go back a year to two weeks out from the twenty twenty five NFL draft and see where the pulse was in mock drafts and tone and who the experts, using that term loosely, while also throwing myself into it, had the lines going, not in the final mock drafts, but in the mock drafts that came out around this time last year. And I I, used a couple of resources. Lion's Wire, where I used to work, I used to assign Billy Rossetti to do a weekly mock draft roundup. I looked up Billy's work. Billy still does great work. He's always looking for more gigs. So if you need somebody who knows a lot about football in general, he's a good guy good guy to have. Good good guy in general. Pride to Detroit also tracked it. The Detroit Free Press also had a tracker that came out, ten days before, so we're we're not quite to that point yet, but it's still you know, it it's close enough that it it makes sense, and some of the mock drafts probably came out around this time. So let's look back where we were a year ago. And I will remind you, the lions took Tylek Williams defensive tackle Ohio State with their first round pick because nobody really had that. Now in the spirit of look. So, you know, I work for the huge show, and the huge show is is nothing if not self promotion. That's something that we're we're good at there. And I'm just gonna bring this up. I'm gonna show it. 03/10/2025, I responded to Beast. By the way, Beast, does great work. He used to work for me at the Detroit Lions draft, rest in peace, back in over fifteen years ago. I started that site, and he was one of the original writers there. And we were getting into a conversation on Blue Sky about, he and he talked about, the defensive tackle hole was pretty glaring. And I responded, and it's dated right there, 10:12 twenty PM on 03/10/2025. Tylek Williams is my current first round expectation. I know they like him from the combine, but will he be there, and will they like him most? That, ladies and gentlemen, is the only mention of Tylek Williams as a first round pick that I can find anywhere, and I flipped off of it because I didn't trust my information would stay that way. Now I will say, two days before the draft, I got a call from somebody who, is very, very well placed in NFL circles, and he told me, Talik Williams was gonna be the pick. And I didn't believe you. Sorry. And I stuck with my my wrong pick. There's a lesson there, and I'm trying to learn it hard this year. And I I I hate it with this on social media too, but I what I learned coming out of the combine tends to be the most accurate information. And all the things that go on, whether it's pro days, mock drafts, a lot of the the the big big time draft nicks. By the way, Dane Bruegeler released the beast today. Get it. It's worth it. I love Dane. I love the work that he puts into it. Doesn't necessarily mean that he's always right, but, Dane is certainly somebody that that deserves your respect and attention. He's he's very good at it. But, just wanted to throw that out there. Just just keep that in mind because that is again, it's the only time Ty Lee Williams got connected to the lions that I could find on any of the social media channels. I did not go to Reddit where, the Detroit Lions podcast is your official Detroit Lions and Reddit connection. I never say that. I probably should say that more. That's, that's our official title. Chris set that up many, many years ago, over ten years ago. A quick look back at what was going on at this point last year.
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Speaker 2: And I will look up Billy's summary here. So my personal raise my hand here. I had Derek Harmon from Oregon. There are mentions of Kelvin Banks, Gray Zabel, a lot of mentions of Donovan Esaraku. In fact, he was the number one player at this point projected to the lions at number 28 last year. Donovan Esaraku, pass rusher, edge from Dallas. I mean, went to Dallas from Boston College. He, he also wound up being the number one player in final mocks, and and there's tracking that does that too. He was the most projected player to the lions a year ago, Donovan Esaraku. Didn't work out that way. Other names that got a lot of mention, Jihad Campbell. I still don't quite get that one. Look. Great player. Would have loved to have him in Detroit. But with the linebacking corps the way it was after having just paid, Derek Barnes, you've got Jack Campbell who was emerging as an all pro, and some of us did see that coming. And Alexei Asloni is a solid, you know, coverage linebacker, do it all leader type. Wasn't really room for him, especially with Rodrigo, who didn't get hurt until, you know, unfortunately, you know, the season would kinda wash that out. But there was there was not necessarily a position of a lot of need. Big time mentions also for Nick Skorton and Michael Williams, pass rushers. They both got multiple additions. Skorton was a very popular one, especially with the crowd. And, I wonder and I I I don't know the answer to this, and maybe y'all can help me with this. But I wonder if the perception that Brad avoids Brad Holmes, Lance GM, avoids edge in the draft is somehow more exacerbated the the perception is more influenced by the fact that so many of us and and I'm there too, but so were all your favorite draftniks. By the fact that everybody projected them to take an edge and he didn't, I wonder if that plays into it because there is this, you know, overriding emphasis, and I see it all the time in comment sections, even on the videos here, on YouTube, that Brad doesn't draft for need. Well, I actually disagree with that pretty strongly, but he just doesn't draft edge early. When you go back in time and look at all the picks that they they have taken, they are drafting for need. Like, they do need these guys. It might not be immediate, but they drafted Ty Lake Williams a year ago knowing that DJ Reader wasn't gonna be back on this football team. They drafted Terry on Arnold in the first round knowing that they needed an outside corner. They drafted Dennis Rakestra hoping that he could be the slot to eventually replace Amic Robertson on the inside or grow into an outstanding outside corner. Like, all those guys, Jack Campbell, Brian Branch, Kirby Joseph, Sam Laporta, Jameer Gibbs. Like, they needed all those guys. There was this weird thing that, you know, they drafted Jameer Gibbs and they still had Deandre. Like, we all I shouldn't say that. Most of us had a very good idea that Deandre Swift was not long for Detroit at that point. Not at all. It's somewhat baffling to me that he is still in Chicago with Ben Johnson because they weren't exactly simpatica when they were in Detroit, but that's that's Chicago's issue now. So I wonder about that on the whole, about how we might be unintentionally, making it seem like the lions are ignoring edge more because it's projected so often. Again, I don't have I don't know if there's an answer to that. I don't I don't know if it's right or wrong. It's just something that popped into my head, and I thought it was if you have a thought on that, let me know, because that's you know, because it's not done intentionally. Like, we're mocking what we know who well, I should say. Those of us in Lion's Land tend to project players that have met with the lions or that the lions have expressed interest in or certainly appear to have interest in based on their playing style and background. The reasons why I'm a big Kendrick Faulk believer this year, but also TJ Parker and also Blake Miller. And so two weeks out, I do think the first round pick's gonna be one of those three. I do. See if I'm right in a couple weeks. Some of the other names that were out there at that time, there was still a lot of offensive linemen. A lot. Donovan Jackson was a popular one. Josh Connerly, popular one. Gray Zabel, very popular one. Josh Simmons, but the biggest offensive line projection. And this was done and I'll just read off some of the names here. And this is prior to Detroit track this one. John Neal from the Detroit News. Nfl.com nfl.com, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, CBS Sports, PFN, Fantasy Pros, they all had Tyler Booker offensive guard Alabama, as the team's first round projection two weeks out. It's a lot of people projecting a guard from Alabama, Tyler Booker. Booker, he he's, I never really saw the fit there, honestly. I didn't like, I I got the that was one where I I am a believer in the positional value thing, and I don't think that Brad viewed guard as that pressing we need, especially when the guards in the day two and day three range, which, by the way, they drafted one of each, were very strong a year ago. Grays able certainly made sense because he could play center and, turned out to be a very good pick. But I didn't get the Booker love, and, I don't really get the love for somebody else who's gonna be a prospect of the day, spoiler alert. That's been a very popular projection of late that I I don't get it, frankly. We'll talk about that in a minute.
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Speaker 2: Let's go a little bit broader out. I wanna look at some of the other ones. So just, Dave Burkett at this point a year ago had Donovan Esaraku, Rayner Sabin, also from the Detroit Free Press, had Shamar Stewart. USA Today had Siobhan Revel and Donovan Isaraku. These are different people. Jordan Reed, great guy. One of the best draft picks that's out there, at ESPN. He had Gray Zabel. Mel Kiper, at this point, had Michael Williams. Field Yates, Derek Harmon. Matt Miller had Gray Zabel. Wow. Nick Wright, Michael Williams. Connor Rogers had Michael Williams. I'm sorry. No. He had Donovan Jackson. I like Connor. Connor's a good guy. CBS had a ton. Recent guest, Chris Trepaso, had Nick Skorton. A lot of Grace Abel, a lot of Josh Connerly there. So what's the point to all that, you might ask? We don't know. We don't know what the lions are gonna do. We like to think we know or at least have a good idea, but one year ago, literally nobody knew. I had it in my hands and dropped it. Could try not to do that again this year. So when you get worked up by seeing Jermoud McCoy, cornerback Tennessee in the first round, or Vega Iowane, who we're gonna get to her in a second, or Caden Proctor, offensive tackle Alabama, and I still maintain that I think he's gone before the lions pick. Any of the offensive linemen, really. Any of really anybody. Like, it could be anyone still. But I will push back against the the this perception that Brad doesn't draft for need because that's that's not entirely accurate. It might just not be the need that you think it is most pressing. It might not be the need right now. It might be the need going forward, and that's tends to be what good teams do. And Seattle didn't need Devon Weatherspoon when they took him. Worked out pretty well. You're looking at who's who's on expiring contracts this year? Who do they have to replace down the line? That's what the lines are looking at as well as immediate need. They do immediately much more in free agency, which is where we got DJ Wonnum this year and Roger McCreery at positions of need. Christian Isian. By the way, they did bring back Avonte Maddox. I didn't put that in the daily, from Monday. I did not do daily yesterday. I was in planes and airports and cars for most of the day. Apologize for that. Back home now. Kinda nice. Avonte Maddox is back. Avonte Maddox had two really nice games in Detroit last year as a reserve super sub, but he can play anywhere in the secondary as can Isian for the most part. I like it. I don't know that both of them are gonna make the team, but I like the fact that we've got them both in the fold right now going into the draft. If they get challenged by a middle round draft pick, I'm good with that. The more the merrier. See who wins. I'm I'm I'm I I like I like having Maddox back. Let's shift to this guy. Prospect of the day, Venga Iowane. I learned that his first name his his true first name is what is it? I I cannot look it up. I can't even say it right. Ol Oliva Venga. He goes by Vega. Venga. It's weird because there's an n in there even though it doesn't list, but it's not like a full n. It's like veng like, you got a Polynesian names are, are are they can be difficult for those of us, who come from a European background. Let's put it that way. Three year starter at left guard for Penn State. Only played left guard. Was a three star recruit coming out. The pros, and, boy, they're easy to see on film because you can flip them on. They're right there. Dude is a snowplow in the run game. Moves people, period, especially if they're right in front of him at the snap. Outstanding grip strength and shoulder torque, impressive anchor strength and foot frequency versus power. You don't try to bull him. Ain't gonna work very well. His punch, he packs a good punch. There's jolt to it. It's pretty accurate. He tends to get a he will get a little high at times, but, overall, nothing equivalent about there. So good coordination and communication with his line mates, that's important. That is something that the lions do look for. Guy can communicate and have some good look look for work blocks in Pasco. What I mean by that? Well, look for work block is when you don't have somebody initially in front of you or your initial movement doesn't have anybody with you, so you go look for work. And that's actually one thing that Tate Rallidge excels at and one of the things that the lines liked about him. Now the cons, dude does not have lateral agility, like, at all. And I I don't see that get brought up enough in the lion's talk. I'm just gonna read what I wrote about him in the interior offensive line for every round piece that I did. What did that publish? Let me look at that here. That published March 11. Alright. This is what I read or what I wrote. There's a fair chance Ione will be gone before the lions pick a 17. He's a guard only prospect with a very high end power oriented one. He's a snowplow in the run game, especially when the three hundred and twenty pound Ione can initiate contact with his punch before having to move. I wanna bear some stylistic resemblance and power laden run game work with one time lions pro bowler Larry Warford in his too brief prime. Stepping away from the quote for a second. He is a lot like Larry Warford. Now I will remind you, Larry Warford went in the third round. Back to the quote. He doesn't have the lateral range or quickness with his hands of the elite NFL guards, but Ione looks like a high floor ready made starter for a gap duo heavy scheme like the Lions. Outside zone teams, think the Shanahan style teams, shouldn't value Ione nearly as much as his range is limited and takes away from his in your face power. He is the number one interior offensive lineman in this class, like, consensus wise. I do not have a great deal of distance between him and Chase Besantas or Emmanuel Pregnan in the rankings. Not as much as, what what like, I I see I only listed as a top 10 prospect. I'll just say this. If he's a top 10 prospect in this class, this class sucks because I'm not sure he's better than Larry Warford was, honestly. Doesn't mean he's a bad prospect. Doesn't mean that he, you know, can't be a great NFL player because Warford was for a time too. 17 is way too rich for that. If you've got questions about an interior offensive alignment if he can move by the way, he can also only play left tackle or I'm sorry. Left guard. He hasn't played on the right side yet. He doesn't do special teams. Lions don't have a pressing need there. I mean, sure, he could come in and start and and beat out Christian for that role, but then, you know, you've got a lot of bodies there. What did you draft Miles Frasier for? You know, where is where do these guys all fit? So I genuinely don't see and and I know Daniel Jeremiah said not that you're somebody posted out there, that the lions were, like, in love with with Iowana and, you know, it was, the DJ's was was Caden Proctor, now that I think about it. Sorry about that. I do buy that the lines were like Caden Proctor even though I don't particularly. But I don't get the Iowana at 17, like, infatuation with a lot of fans because he's he is not as safe as he's made out to be based on my viewing anyways. So that's where I'm at with it. I'm a good football player. I think in a in a better draft, I'm not sure he goes in the first round. And, again, I would I would much rather if they're gonna take a guard, wait around for Joe for, Chase Besantis, Emmanuel Pregnan. There's, god, there's a few. Keland Rutledge comes to mind a little bit later. The the gap between any of those guys is not nearly as wide as it's made out to be in my opinion anyways. So that's the daily for today. We have something special tomorrow night. Thursday night, there will be a live round table mock draft. Now I will not be part of it, but Chris will be in. Gray will be in. Russ will be in. We're trying to get, Bish in as well. We'll see if if that all works out. I will be in the next one, and I will have the what I would do mock draft coming for you very shortly. And I I will be publishing very soon, perhaps even before you watch this, the a cornerback for every round of the twenty twenty six NFL draft. So that's that's where we're at. It's great to be home. There is nothing better than showering in your own shower after you've been away. I just gotta throw that out there. Jefferson signing off on Wednesday. Be good to one another, please. Please. We