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Speaker 3: Hey, everyone. Jeff Risen here with your daily DLP. It is Monday. We made it to Monday. We can get through this week. A little over two more weeks till the NFL draft. April 6, hope you all had a nice weekend. We are gonna talk today about the seventeenth overall pick and what you can get for it in a trade. If you wanna trade up, if you wanna trade back, if you wanna trade it for a player, there is recent history for all of those, and I thought I would go over those today. So let's get right into it. Number 17 pick. This is what it's actually gone for. And you will notice that it doesn't match up exactly any of these trades really with the trade charts. As I said before, when when we did an earlier, trade projection thing in a in a mock, the the team that's moving up generally pays about a 10% tax on whatever, you know, whatever chart you're using, whether it's, you know, the Rich Hill, the the Spiegelburger, the, Neil, Jimmy Johnson chart. And that's, like, that's that's fairly well extended, but it's not universal. There are times where the team moving up has actually ripped off the other team. It happens, but it all matters about the players that you get more than anything else. And that is certainly true with the first one. Last time the seventeenth pick was traded was in 2014. I got some notes here. You'll see me looking down. By the way, thanks for liking and subscribing. Appreciate it. The seventeenth pick went for number 23, number one sixty seven overall plus a third round and fourth round pick in 2025. That's that's a lot to move up. And the Vikings moved up with the Jaguars. Vikings moved up to state Dallas Turner. Thus far, he's not lived up to that billing. Not a bad football player, you know, the edge from Alabama, but he hasn't been worth all of that. And I'll go over who he's not better than the player that the Jaguars got with the first pick number 23. That was Brian Thomas, wide receiver. Pretty dang good player. Potential pro bowler as we go forward here. Better than Turner. They also got running back, Helene Robinson. And then the picks for the next year in 2025, they both got traded again. That happens a lot with traded picks. They get traded and traded and traded. One of them became Caleb Rand Saw, who is a decent starting safety right now. The other one, by the way, the the Alliance were actually involved in the trade and then traded away again. So, we won't won't fall the tentacles or we don't have that much time. So the first one probably would have been better off not making that trade if you're in Minnesota. 2023, the bears got involved. I'm sorry. This was 17 for, four 17 plus one twenty. So the the team moved up seventeen and one twenty for 14. So they paired 17 with another pick to move up. Fourteenth pick was Braxton Jones, offensive tackle. Thus far, okay. Certainly not the fourteenth best player from that class. The number 17 pick, Christian Gonzalez, cornerback. We've had the Christian Gonzalez in Detroit discussion. His lack of ability to identify any football players that he liked or saying that he didn't really enjoy football, like didn't watch it, was an immediate disqualifier, right or wrong for the Lions. Like they're they're not, they're not playing that. But that's another one. And then the one hundred and twentieth pick, got traded, to and became Carter Warren. I would say that the team that moved back won that pick, won that trade as well. Again, the player that you moved up for isn't as good as the player that was taken with your pick. That happens. The one before this, and this is one that I know well because I covered it, in 2019. And this didn't happen at the draft. This happened before it. 17 overall, 95 overall, Kevin Zeitler and Jabriel Peppers were traded by the Cleveland Browns to the New York Giants for Odell Beckham Junior and Olivier Vernon.

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Speaker 3: That's quite the haul. The 20 and again, this happened, like, during the season, so it was, it was I remember I was actually on a treadmill running, when I got the text that the trade was going down. Like, we knew that, in Brownsland that the the trade was being discussed, and we were wondering, like, well, are they gonna throw Olivia Vernon in or not? Like, what's what's up with that? So so anyways, what came out of that trade? The seventeenth pick, became Dexter Lawrence. Pretty good player. So the Browns effectively gave up. Dexter Lawrence, '95 became O'Shane Simadez, who had a very brief cup of coffee and I believe he's in the I haven't actually watched the UFL this year, but I know he was last year. Pass rusher, undersized guy. And then they got Kevin Zeitler, who we know well, and a good By the way, good football player. That was sort of his peak era, but with with Seitler, the fall off's minimal. And then Jabril Peppers, who is, by the way, still out there as a free agent. Don't think the lines are gonna have a lot of interest in him now, now that they've solidified the safety room, but, you know, worth a thought. And they got OBJ and LaVie Vernon, and it led to the first playoff win for the Cleveland Browns in, the modern era since they came back. They were he and Vernon, and by the way, Vernon, if you're looking for a model of how to balance a great pass rusher like Myles Garrett, The Browns did it. It didn't last long with Olivier Vernon, but the pairing with him being a little bit stylistically different. Vernon was more of a speed to power guy where Myles can do everything. That's the model that we're looking for in Detroit, opposite Aidan Hutchinson. We want somebody who can do things a little bit differently, but also can play well enough on his own that if you leave him alone, you're gonna be dead. It was still a very, very fun team in Cleveland. Didn't last long. OBJ, as he often does, wears out his welcome. But, that So that's where the players get involved. And I like who won that trade? Probably the Browns. Although you're not gonna sneeze at Dexter Lawrence, like Dexter Lawrence is a really good football player. So that's one of those where I think both sides won. And with the existing players being involved, there was the untenable situation of, like like, OBJ wanted out. By the way, Zeidler wanted out of Cleveland. He had he he'd they'd run its course there. So dual winner trade. Before that, seventeen didn't get traded, back until 2015 when '17 and one seventeen went to from went from San Francisco I'm sorry. From San Diego, they were the chargers then. They were in San Diego then, to the forty niners. So seventeen and one seventeen, basically a fourth round pick to move up from 17 to 15 along with the pick. 17 was Melvin Gordon. Pretty darn good footballer. One seventeen wound up being Blake Bell, the Belldozer, former Oklahoma quarterback that they tried to convert unsuccessfully into a tight end. Draft missed for me, by the way. I I thought it was gonna work for the Belldozer. I really did. Liked him. I was wrong. It happens. Looking back at the other tentacle on that. Yeah. 15, was Melvin Gordon. Don't know why I said 17. 17. Forty niners picked up Eric Armstead. Pretty darn good football player. Right? The guy that, Kendrick Faulk gets compared to a lot. Guy who can play standing up at the edge can reduce down into a a four or a three and be very effective on the inside. Gordon had his peak was he was fun, man. He was really exciting. But with running backs, doesn't always last that long, but he had a good run. That one, I would give the advantage there to the chargers moving up from 17, and spending one seventeen with it to go get go get it. That's, that's the way to go. There was also a, a twenty sixteen fifth round pick included in that, that became Ronald Blair. He went to San Francisco. He, unfortunately, passed rusher from App State, couldn't couldn't make it work in the NFL. Had lessened a little bit, but but didn't have a great career. So, you know, you're going 1817 and a twenty sixteen fifth rounder. That's that was the deal. Yeah. 2012, another one that involves a player. Number 17 plus a twenty thirteen second round pick.

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Speaker 3: From the Raiders to the Bengals for quarterback Carson Palmer who clearly wanted out at that point. Carson Palmer. Yeah. He was done. On memory of him in a Cincinnati uniform. That was a mutual parting. They basically auctioned him off. The Raiders made the best offer, and they got number 17, which became Draper Patrick, pretty decent starting quarterback for a few years for the Bengals, and running back Geo Bernard. Good player. Shifty running back had, again, a nice initial contract with Cincinnati. Kind of again with running backs that the shelf life short man, but was part of those good Bengals teams, that kept winning the division over Baltimore and Pittsburgh back in that time, the Marvin Lewis era, the end of the Marvin Lewis era. Palmer never really worked out super well in Oakland. Some of that's obviously not his fault, but I think you would give the Bengals the win in this one. Again, 17 and a second round pick got you, Carson Palmer. So in this draft, let's say the Lions wanna trade up and get a specific player. 17 and a second rounder in 2027 goes and gets you I'm trying to think who's on the market now. Who's disgruntled. It's tough to think. If that comes about though, that that that that's where you would get it. That's I don't see anything like that happening, but that that's what the history is. The other one, the year before that, the Raiders were also involved. They traded number 17 straight up for Richard Seymour from the Patriots. Richard Seymour was a all pro at that point. Very good player. Wanna see who they I did not write down who was taken with the seventeenth pick in 2011. I don't know that off the top of my head. Nate Solder, left tackle, giant left tackle. Until Dan Skipper came along, he was the tallest guy in the NFL. Had an okay career, leverage issues obviously, but, Richard Seymour was, yeah, he was a good one. And then the only other time I went back, I I kinda cheated on this. I made the line of demarcation 2009, which is three regimes ago for Detroit. First year, Matthew Stafford draft. 17 Gotta get back here. Sorry. This light is flickering over my head or over my shoulder here. It's freaking me out a little bit. I don't know how to stop it. Those of you who are watching on on light on the YouTube, thank you. And, sorry about the the light. It's really bugging me. Okay. The trade. This is this is a complicated one. The Browns and the Buccaneers traded Cleveland traded 17 to Tampa Bay. So basically Tampa Bay traded nineteen and one hundred and ninety one to move up to 17. They took quarterback Josh Freeman from Kansas State. I liked Josh Freeman. He let me down a little bit. I will just say, however, that the player that was taken immediately before him was Larry English. That didn't go so well. Who did the Browns get with that? They traded both of the other picks that they acquired. One of them became Jeremy Macklin for the Eagles in a trade. Let me look at that trade because I don't know the details on that one. Cleveland then traded 19 for a first they traded it for '21 and 01/1995. '21 became Alex Mack, who for my money was the best center of the 2010s. So by the way, Jeremy Mackel was a very productive speed receiver for the Eagles, for a good time too. The player who got drafted first out of all that, the team that moved up, got the worst player. You'll notice that's a theme a lot in drafts, but when you hit, when you move up, it's exceptional. And that's that's sort of the risk that you run if you wanna move up. Now if there is a team that wants to move up and give the Lions this year sorry. Police. I didn't do it. If they wanna give 19 to one ninety one for 17, I'll take that deal every day. I think Brad Holmes would too. And that that would be the most optimal situation that you could get. So then you're looking at a sixth round pick to move up two spots. We can maybe fluff that to a fifth if somebody really wants it. But again, that's, that's the sort of level of compensation that you're gonna get if you make that move. So I wanted to cover that. I thought that was somewhat interesting. We'll go into the, I did prospects of the day, prospects, plural. Wanted to cover three day three tight ends who are all very tightly clustered in the the, DLP consensus big board. All three of them are within the same 10 spots. I got three of them here, pull it up. Matthew Hibner from SMU, Daquan Wright from Ole Miss and Tanner Koziol from Houston. All three of these guys are about the same size. Hibner's a little bit bigger, but they, they offer kinda different things. Hibner's two fifty one, six four. Right? Six four, two forty eight. Koziol's tall at six six. He's weighed in at two forty seven. I don't think he played that heavy. He he is much more like a supersized wide receiver. Let's take him an order here. Hypner played he's started out at Michigan, barely played in three years there, spent two years at SMU. He is fast. He can wham block effectively from the slot, which is nothing that can be done from the other guys here. Certainly the best blocker of this group. Natural holster against zone coverage, great hands, one drop in five years, only had 71 targets. So, tendons don't get a lot of use in college football and he is certainly an example of that. And he also has considerable and positive special teams experience. Go to right, Daquan Wright, played slot HVAC, actually played outside a little bit for Ole Miss. Spent two years at Virginia Tech, really didn't do much there. He blossomed in 2025. He had a connection, excuse me, with the quarterback. And like the quarterback tight ends, you know, symbiosis, it always matters. This light is driving me freaking crazy. What are you gonna do? Last day here. Yeah. Fun. True to that jambliss and and Daquan Ray had a nice little connection. And you can see how, Jared Goff could find it as well. Very strong hands can go out and get the ball away from his frame. He is not a blocker. He tries, his hands are all over the place. He just needs technique work. And I do think that there's some developmental upside with Daquan Wright that might not be there as much with Hebner, or Koziol. So if you're looking for a more developmental guy, by the way, all three of these guys are sixth, seventh round picks. And if the lines are taking a tight end, if at all, that's the range I would expect it. Wright does intrigue, but he has barely played special teams. And if you are the number three, number four, tight end on a team, you damn well better be able to contribute on special teams. Otherwise you're gonna be bouncing between the practice squad and the street a lot. So in that sense, Hebner has a head up on that. Kosyal, I remember him from Ball State, he terrorized the Mac as a supersized wide receiver playing as tight end. That's what he is. Great hands, very good at contested catches. One of the issues is, is because he's very straight line, and kind of stiff in his routes and runs upright. Most of his catches are contested. He doesn't get open super well. Very good working out of the slot is a big slot, red zone weapon, he can go get the ball. You like that? He is not a very great athlete, does not get a lot of separation, which from a Jared Goff standpoint to Jared Goff or the covered receivers, Not often. So probably gonna pass on Koziol. And also he has very little special teams experience. I believe he only played on kick block when he was at Ball State. I don't know how to break down for for his, time in his one year at Houston, but thought we'd mix things up a little bit with some tight ends to get a lot of interest in the mock graph simulators for the lines on day three. Of this group, Hibner is the best player, but I think Wright might be the best prospect if you feel like you can develop him. That's gonna do it for today's daily. I'm gonna throw this light out the window and hopefully it doesn't hit anybody, laying up here. I appreciate y'all. I don't know if there will be a daily tomorrow. Tuesday is a travel day for me, but we will be coming back later this week. I have Emory Hunt lined up. I have Nick Baumgartner lined up. I have a couple of other guests for the coming week as well. And we're gonna do a live mock draft show at some point this week as well. With me, Ross, Gray, Chris, Bish is in. So that's gonna be fun. So stay tuned for that and make sure you like and subscribe so you know when that's coming at you. Until then, a very aggravated Jeff Risen with this light. Be good to one

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