Lions vs Rams: Last-minute thoughts and final score prediction

The 8-5 Detroit Lions head to Los Angeles to play the 10-3 Rams in a game that carries postseason significance for both teams. Coming off a much-needed, strong home win over Dallas in Week 14, the Lions’ playoff light is still shining. Can they keep it lit against the Rams, the only NFC team with 10 wins?

Framing is everything in this one. The pessimists, the SOL crowd, embrace the notion that the inconsistent, banged-up Lions are going on the road to play the team that sits atop the NFC rankings in just about every NFL power poll this week. They’ve got an MVP front-runner in Matthew Stafford, a well-known commodity for Detroit fans.

The optimists will espouse how strong, how fine-tuned the Lions offense looked in beating a Cowboys team that had been playing very good football before running into Detroit last Thursday. It’s a Lions team that has won a playoff game over the Stafford-led Rams and has proven it can rise up to match the level of play against other top teams, even if the results haven’t always been victorious.

It should be a fun game. It could be, could be, a springboard for an epic finish and playoff run for Detroit. That’s the hope as the Lions visit the Rams.

Reasons to like the Lions

The primary reasons to like Detroit are always the same: Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker blocking for Jahmyr Gibbs, with Jared Goff delivering to a talented group of pass catchers who can create well after the catch. It’s a formula few teams can match, even with Detroit missing top TE Sam LaPorta.

There is one definite matchup advantage for Detroit in this game, and that’s the WR combination of Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Isaac TeSlaa going against the Los Angeles cornerback room that has much better name value than actual football results in 2025. These Rams carry some similarity to the 2023 Lions, a great overall team with a glaring weakness in covering good wideouts. Emmanuel Forbes and Cobie Durant enhance their value as corners by getting their hands on a lot of passes (each has three INTs, Forbes has 11 PDs), but they will give up completions and big plays. Forbes has been on the hook for six touchdowns and also sports an astronomical 25 percent missed tackle rate. He’ll likely be matched up with Jamo. If Jared Goff can get time, that’s a massive, exploitable advantage for Detroit.

Detroit’s base 4-3 defense is a nice foil to counter the Rams very effective run game. Stafford loves to operate from under center, and the Rams are one of the NFL’s most consistent rushing attacks–primarily when under center and not shotgun. That’s an area where Kelvin Sheppard’s defense has excelled thanks to the steadfast usage of three actual linebackers. If D.J. Reader and Tyleik Williams play the way they did against Dallas and keep the LBs clean, the Lions defense stands a good chance to force the Rams into more difficult down-and-distance combinations.

Stafford is having an MVP-worthy season, but he is still prone to the occasional bad drive combinations that forever plagued his Detroit tenure. He might go 11-of-16, but those five incompletions will all happen in a row. It’s just who he’s always been. If the Lions defense can convert even one of those errant five into a takeaway, that’s a successful half for Detroit. That’s how the Panthers beat the Rams back in Week 13 despite Carolina having the league’s worst pass rush in terms of both pressure rate and sack percentage. The Lions pass rush has been wildly inconsistent, but Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill and Al-Quadin Muhammad are all capable of making plays behind the line and forcing Stafford to sweat some.

This isn’t a bad time for the Lions to catch the Rams, as oddly as that might seem. Los Angeles’ last three games have featured two non-competitive blowout wins (Tampa Bay and Arizona) sandwiched around a mistake-prone close loss to the Panthers. The Rams have a much more important game this coming Thursday, an NFC West showdown with the Seahawks that could very well decide the division title and the No. 1 seed in the conference. I would not expect a well-coached veteran team like the Rams to overlook any game, but if ever there were such circumstances, this might be it.

 

What worries me about the Rams

The Rams are a first-place team and playing as consistently on both sides of the ball as any NFL team has all season. Old friend Matthew Stafford is a legit MVP candidate having what is arguably his best season–and he’s had some great ones.

Stafford has some great weapons, too. Puka Nacua and Davante Adams are a fantastic, physically imposing 1-2 punch at wideout. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are a very good 1-2 punch at running back. The Rams have three effective tight ends and aren’t afraid to play them all at the same time, making them a difficult offense to match personnel with. Alaric Jackson is quietly having an All-Pro season at left tackle. Steve Avila is a very effective left guard. It’s a loaded offense coached by a very smart, very aggressive coach in Sean McVay.

And with all that said, the Rams defense might be their better unit. Really. Their young front generates consistent pressure from multiple spots. Jared Verse has been a home run as their 2024 first-rounder. Braden Fiske is a triple as a second-round DT from that draft. Byron Young is the most anonymous 11-sack defender in the league, but he’s capable of winning in multiple gaps and finishes exceptionally well. They’ve got depth and they’ve got speed all over the defense. As noted above, their corners are the weak point, but there are far worse CB rooms around the league, too.

To keep this brief, the two things the Rams do exceptionally well–throwing the ball all over the field and rushing the passer–directly attack the two current weak points for the Lions. Detroit will play this game without three defensive starters (Branch, Joseph, Arnold), and one replacement starter at safety, Thomas Harper, is also out with a concussion.

The offensive line is banged up, too. Left tackle Taylor Decker continues to play through pain. Graham Glasgow isn’t 100 percent at center. Left guard remains a question with Christian Mahogany still on I.R., unable to get back for this game. The unit played very capably vs. Dallas, but struggled badly in the prior three weeks (and perhaps longer). They will need to be at maximum effectiveness against a very good Rams pass rush, and also at clearing holes in the run game. They can do it, but it’s not something the Lions line has reliably done this year. In a game where the Lions figure to need to maximize their possessions and points, it’s not an easy sell. And it’s an easier sell than the devastated secondary, which hasn’t had good play from Amik Robertson in a few weeks, either.

 

Final score prediction

The Lions win if they get out to an early lead, run the ball well and go at least plus-1 in the turnover battle. Scoring TDs in the red zone and holding the Rams to a field goal or two would certainly help as well. Detroit has the ability to do all those things, absolutely. But it’s hard to have confidence they actually do it against arguably the NFL’s best team.

Rams 34, Lions 27

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