The unfortunate Terrion Arnold ordeal of the past few days has dominated the Detroit Lions conversation. Even while in Orlando for the week, it’s been inescapable for me. 

Down here, the conversation has been a little different. Or rather, conversations; I’ve had several of them with Lions fans of varying degrees of intensity and heritage. I’ve also received unsolicited input from a Colts fanatic and a Vikings sycophant here, each of whom I’ve known casually and respectfully for a couple of years. I’ve largely been away from social media and the discourse taking place in the reactionary realm–one of the perks of being in an internet-challenged convention center watching volleyball for 8 hours every day. Of course, it creeps into conversations and into our Detroit Lions Podcast Slack channel, so I’m moderately aware of the lines in the Lions’ sand. 

Here’s what I’m thinking about with the Lions and the Terrion Arnold situation as the weekend hits. 

I think the Lions are in a very tough spot

Like most folks I’ve talked with, I think the Lions should end their relationship with Arnold, much in the manner they did with the Cam Sutton arrest a couple of years ago. But it’s more complicated with Arnold, and I understand why the team has said or done nothing to this point beyond a (necessarily) bland deflection to a Detroit TV station (as of writing this at 4:48 p.m. on Friday). 

Being charged with a crime, even a heinous felony, is not automatic grounds for termination. We do have the concept of “innocent until proven guilty” in this country. Contractually speaking, that legal precedent still matters. The Lions shouldn’t do anything until Monday’s court hearing clarifies the evidence against Arnold. They risk too much by saying or doing anything beforehand. The NFL does, too. 

I think the NFL will take over quickly in meting out discipline

The Lions might not have to worry much about any internal discipline or punitive actions (including releasing him) with Arnold. An active player being charged with eight felonies after months of lengthy police investigation and apparent testimony against him from codefendants escalates the Arnold situation up to the very top of the NFL flagpole. That’s Commissioner Roger Goodell. 

Goodell and the NFL took over the punishment for Deshaun Watson after his scandalous behavior–sexual misconduct complaints that were not adjudicated in criminal court. The Greg Hardy situation from over a decade ago is probably more analogous. The NFL placed Hardy on the Commissioner’s exempt list while the legal process played out. 

The exempt list leaves the player on the team’s roster control but doesn’t count against the roster limit. They are still paid and able to get medical treatment and attend team meetings, but ineligible to play or participate in practices. I expect that to happen with Arnold, and that comes from the NFL — not the Lions. 

Now, the Lions could still terminate Arnold’s contract while he’s on the exempt list. But to avoid any potential financial/contractual issues if Arnold was eventually cleared (as Hardy was after his initial conviction), they’re better off just letting Arnold rot on the exempt list and then later suing him to recoup the money paid out. That’s what the Texans were doing with Watson before public pressure and a bizarre trade with the Browns washed their hands of that problem. 

Cutting Arnold now, before the league metes out any suspension, would be expensive for the Lions. And I’m not talking about the ownership. Per Spotrac via USA TODAY, 

Detroit could release Arnold right now, but they would receive a dead cap charge of $7,314,869 in 2026 and $1,812,947 in 2027, according to Spotrac. While those numbers aren’t astronomical from an NFL salary cap perspective, the Lions wouldn’t save any money by releasing Arnold at the moment.

In fact, they would lose an additional $3,402,948 in cap space.

That is a specific retort to a couple of fans/friends who demanded that the Lions fire Arnold immediately. I definitely appreciate the sentiment, but it’s simply not that simple. 

I don’t want Arnold to play in Detroit again

Even if he’s eventually cleared, I don’t want Arnold wearing the Honolulu Blue and Silver again. I’ve seen with the Deshaun Watson fiasco in Cleveland how draining, how life-sucking, how demoralizing his presence on the team is. It’s that way not just for Browns fans, but for the players and coaches around him. Don’t think for a second that there aren’t many in the Browns organization who are seriously offended and bothered by the team employing Watson. That would be true in Detroit, too. 

If/when he’s suspended by the NFL, the Lions are no longer responsible for any of the guaranteed monies in Arnold’s contract. But even if that doesn’t happen and it would cost Detroit about $9M total in cap space through 2028, it’s worth it to me to move on from Arnold. 

There will always be a significant portion of the fan base who won’t care that Arnold gets exonerated. He’s guilty in their minds already and those minds aren’t going to change, period. While I vehemently disagree with those particular folks, it’s their prerogative to think that way. More to the point, those folks can make life miserable for everyone around them who doesn’t share their opinion. Again, I’ve seen that firsthand in both Houston and Cleveland regarding Watson. Heck, I’ve seen it in my immediate family. 

I want better for Detroit and for Lions fans than having to relive the same hostile debate and negativity directed at the team and anyone who dares support either Arnold or the Lions on a daily basis. There will be boycotts and calls for action against the team. Some fans will flee the team and its corporate partners and sponsors. Like it or not, fair or not, their money is the same as everyone else’s. 

It’s not worth those headaches to keep Arnold even if he’s cleared. His on-field play hasn’t shown enough to merit that level of ongoing defense and devotion from the team, either. 

The Lions did a reasonable on-field job in prepping for this situation

We’ve all known about the potential for Arnold to be in some trouble since February. That’s before the NFL Draft and free agency. The Lions did address the cornerback position in both, too. 

Bringing back Rock Ya-Sin and Avonte Maddox, both of whom were free agents, was nice insurance at outside cornerback. Adding Roger McCreary bolstered the depth inside with a proven veteran who fits the scheme and team culture well. Drafting Keith Abney can be seen, and I see it this way, as a direct replacement for Amik Robertson leaving in free agency. Abney has great potential to be as good as Robertson, quickly. And significantly less costly, to boot. UFL refugee Nick Whiteside has flashed real potential above bouncing between the practice squad and active roster, too, and the Lions kept Whiteside in the den. 

It would really help if Arnold’s 2024 NFL Draft classmate, Ennis Rakestraw, could provide anything. Two years in, Rakestraw has played 46 snaps of defense thanks to several different injuries. I’ve said it since he was drafted–Rakestraw is a great scheme fit and talent but also a very real risk with his injury history and relative lack of speed. Thus far, the risks have emphatically outweighed any reward. Man, if that could change for Rakestraw…