It’s a beautiful late Friday afternoon here in Michigan. Sun is shining, light breeze, a little crispness in the air. It’s perfect football weather. 

It gets me jonesing even harder for Sunday’s kickoff between the Detroit Lions and New Orleans Saints. Sure, the game will be inside Ford Field. I’ve never lost the feeling of lust for football as summer fades into fall, domed stadium or not. 

To quote Jackyl, 

I want it

Give it to me

I want it

Before I pitch a fit

I want it

I want it so bad that I can taste it

I want it

I need a hit

I want it so bad that I can taste it

Before we get that collective Lions hit, I’ve got a few random thoughts about the team dancing in my head. Some are specific to Week 1, others are more macro. Bring on the regular season!

I think Jahmyr Gibbs is a legit NFL MVP candidate

The Lions made Gibbs the highest-paid RB in the league this summer. He’s earned it with his propensity for big plays in both the run and pass games. There isn’t a more dynamic player in the league with the ball in his hands than Gibbs. Now that the Lions cleared the deck a bit by deliberately increasing Gibbs’ workload and dealing away a very good running mate in David Montgomery, the pressure is on for Gibbs to deliver. 

I believe he will. I believe Gibbs embraces it in his relatively nonchalant manner. I don’t know if he’ll lead the league in rushing yards, or TDs, or runs of 20+ yards, though he could very well pace the NFL in all three in 2026. I do know that if the Lions offense finishes in the top 5 and the team wins the NFC North, Gibbs will get the lion’s share of the credit from the national media. And that means MVP recognition. 

I think the quicker time to pressure from the DL will have a huge impact on the defense

Last year the Lions defense finished fourth in sacks, but anyone who watched the Lions knows that the stat is deceptive. Detroit struggled to get quick pressure on opposing QBs, notably from the interior. 

From the very first day of training camp, that has changed. Changed for the better…

Alim McNeill is healthy and hungry. Remember, he was out for the start of 2025 as he recovered from a knee injury and never really got back to trusting his body. The trust and the dynamic athleticism for his position are both back and better than ever. All summer, Tyleik Williams looked more like the first-round pick he was in 2025 than the space-eating but not particularly dynamic rookie campaign he turned in. 

The long and the short of it: opposing offenses will need to pay more blocking attention to the Detroit DTs, or else. And that “or else” makes Aidan Hutchinson even more dangerous off the edge. 

I also think an uptick in blitzing, and more unpredictable blitz packages, from Kelvin Sheppard in his second season as DC will also create more quick pressures on opponents. 

I think Jake Bates should be on a short leash

Not every thought is a positive one, even on a sunny day. Jake Bates has certainly earned his fans and his NFL stripes with some incredible long FGs. Bates in 10-of-17 from beyond 50 yards in the last two seasons. He’s also topped the league in extra points in both his years in Detroit, though he’s missed more (5) in those two years than any other kicker. 

Extra points were a problem for Bates in the preseason. Consistency in practice has never been Bates’ thing, either. As long as he’s hitting above the league average from beyond 45 yards, there isn’t a problem. But if his underwhelming summer bleeds into fall, if he can’t reliably hit the landing zone on kickoffs, the Lions can’t afford to wait for Bates to kick his way out of it. Kicking is incredibly fickle. Here’s hoping Bates rewards the Lions’ faith in him and not having any competition in camp, even after he struggled more than expected. 

I think Brian Branch will thrive once he returns

Lost in the injury-related discussion around safety Brian Branch and his timetable to return: the Pro Bowler was not having a very good season prior to his injury. There were more MAs (missed assignments, the biggest sin for a Dan Campbell player), too many undisciplined penalties and a general lack of impact plays from Branch. He wasn’t bad, but No. 32 wasn’t the positive force he had been in his first two seasons. 

I think that changes whenever he returns, likely the week before or after Detroit’s bye in Week 6. Branch is a smart guy, and he understands he’s playing for his next contract–be it in Detroit or somewhere else. He knows the role of heavy nickel in Sheppard’s defense is tailor-made for his particular set of skills. The team knows it, too. 

I think Blake Miller will need grace as a rookie OT

Miller already looks like a typical first-round rookie OT from his play over the summer. It’s a complex combination of athletic promise, strong base technique, overcorrection to new stresses and the occasional play where a vet–be it Aidan Hutchinson or someone from another team–exposes his inexperience and makes him look terrible. Even Penei Sewell had those moments, and look how he’s turned out. 

Miller doesn’t have Sewell’s all-world ceiling. He also didn’t have the highest ceiling of the tackles who were available when the Lions drafted him in April. I worry that too many folks will forever be comparing Miller to guys like Max Iheanachor, Monroe Freeling and Caleb Lomu and dogging Miller whenever he has a bad play. The “should have” crowd in Lions land is particularly poisonous and growing more emboldened. Miller is not someone who is as impervious to that sort of talk as some others, notably the man he’s replacing at tackle (albeit the other side), Taylor Decker. And that worries me for Miller as he goes through what should be a normal rookie season. 

I think the lack of speed at outside CB is my biggest worry about the defense

I am generally pretty satisfied with the combination of D.J. Reed and Rock Ya-Sin as the Lions’ starting outside corners. Both are smart, tough vets who fit the man-heavy coverage scheme nicely and are above-average against the run. A healthy Reed at the start of the 2025 season was a big reason why the Lions’ defense ranked in the top 10 through the first five games. 

But neither Reed nor Ya-Sin is blessed with great speed. Both ran a 4.51 40-yard dash as prospects, and that was years ago. Those relatively pedestrian speeds pass the eye test on the field, too. Ya-Sin is 30; Reed turns 30 in November. They’re not going to get faster. The issue is, many receivers on the schedule are. 

The depth won’t help here, either. Ennis Rakestraw was a 4.54 guy and that’s before his latest round of hamstring issues (hopefully no more!). Roger McCreary ran a 4.5 at the Combine, and his lack of long speed has been problematic across his NFL stops. 

It’s a very real vulnerability for the Lions. Granted, speed alone doesn’t make a corner good (see Jeff Okudah). But it’s hard to be a great one without it, too. 

I think Dan Campbell learned the right lessons from 2025

One of Dan Campbell’s great qualities is his candid openness. He doesn’t hide his emotions, nor does he try to dodge hard questions or realities. All offseason, the Lions head coach has shown a renewed focus on the little details, on fixing the errors that plagued him and his coaching staff in 2025. 

The team made real changes to the offseason. Much less to-the-ground tackling, to help preserve bodies. More trust in his coordinators and assistant coaches to handle their respective units. Much more coaching of his coaches, something he couldn’t do nearly as much as hoped in 2025. Granted, some of that is Dan’s own fault for making a terrible hire in John Morton as his OC. I strongly believe these adaptations and reversions to what better worked in the past will help the Lions during the 2026 season. 

Moreover, I think last year’s humiliating unreadiness in Week 1 spells very bad news for the visiting Saints on Sunday. 

I think Sam LaPorta’s back must hold up

Last year, LaPorta caught 40 of the 45 passes that Jared Goff threw his way, netting 489 yards and 3 TDs. Detroit was 6-3 with LaPorta and fell to 3-5 without him. The TE production cratered once he got hurt. It didn’t help that No. 2 TE Brock Wright also got hurt. The offensive EPA per play dropped from 0.18 to .01 without LaPorta in those final eight games. 

Obviously he’s not the only factor, but it’s naive to think LaPorta isn’t a major reason why the offense fell off. They became easier to defend, period. While Wright is back and the team added a solid vet in Tyler Conklin and promising WR convert Jackson Meeks, it’s not the same offense without LaPorta at his best. Stay healthy, Sam…

I think Week 3 vs. the Jets is a critical game

Yeah, really. Here’s my thought process…

Week 1 is the home opener. Detroit is amped up and ready to play. Week 2 is a short week, a road trip to Buffalo to open the Bills’ new stadium. The team will definitely be fired up for that experience. The Saints are not an automatic win despite the 7-point spread. The Bills will be favored to win. 

Then comes the Jets. Old friend Aaron Glenn is on the hot seat after a 3-14 season in which his Jets finished in the bottom three on both offense and defense. While they do look better on paper, they’re still a bottom-five team. It’s a home game for Detroit coming off the mini-bye, and it’s sandwiched between road games against 2025 playoff teams in Buffalo and Carolina. 

Classic trap game. But it doesn’t have to be.

Games like this one are matchups where the Lions dominated in their 2023-2024 playoff years. Think the Titans and Jaguars games in 2024, and the Broncos and Raiders games in 2023. If the Lions can get back to thorough domination of inferior foes like that (no offense, Jets fans), I’m going to feel very good about the Lions winning the NFC North. If this matchup with the Jets is a struggle, a game won by a final fourth-quarter drive or (God forbid!) a Detroit loss, my Lions love balloon will deflate quickly. 

I think the Lions will win the NFC North and at least one playoff game this year

No commentary needed. It’s eminently doable for Dan Campbell & Co. 

I want it so bad that I can taste it