The 1-1 Detroit Lions welcome the 1-1 New York Jets into Ford Field for an important early-season matchup in Week 3. After two dismal defensive outings, Detroit now must face former Lions Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn, now the head coach of the Jets. The Lions are favored by 6.5 points, but it’s not looking like a cakewalk for Dan Campbell’s Lions.
Why I think the Lions will win
There are many good reasons to be confident in the Lions in this one. Coming home off a loss in Week 2, Detroit has had a couple of extra days of rest to lick its wounds after the defensive disaster in Buffalo. Extra rest won’t hurt, and it also allows the return of starting offensive linemen Christian Mahogany and Blake Miller, who each missed the short-week game against the Bills.
They were missed, especially Miller at right tackle. Neither was listed on Detroit’s final injury report, which means they’re as close to 100 percent as anyone can be after missing a game. And with those two youngsters healthy, they give the Lions handily the best offensive line this Jets defense has faced all year. Yes, that says more about Tennessee and Green Bay, but Detroit’s talent up front should keep the Jets from finding so much success attacking shaky QBs behind bad lines.
The breadth of offensive weaponry Detroit offers is also something the Jets haven’t seen. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta are all off to great starts. QB Jared Goff has been largely on point, too. It’s a matter of when, not if, Jameson Williams gets rolling. It helps that New York’s best DB, Minkah Fitzpatrick, is out with an injury.
Defensively, well…there is some reason for hope for Detroit. The Jets do not have an overly mobile, dual-threat QB with the derring-do of Tyler Shough or Josh Allen. Geno Smith isn’t a statue, but he is not the athlete or threat that has tormented the Lions thus far. Smith holds the ball longer than any other starting QB, per Next Gen Stats, which gives Aidan Hutchinson, Tyleik Williams and a hungry Detroit defensive front an extra count or two to get to the quarterback.
Schematically, New York also doesn’t run multiple tight end sets often. To wit, the Jets have run 43 total snaps in two games in either 12 (2 TEs) or 13 (3 TEs) personnel packages, per Sumer Sports. By contrast, New Orleans ran 59 snaps in 12 or 13 in Week 1 in Detroit. Not having No. 2 TE Mason Taylor (injury) has forced New York into 11 personnel. And while it seems counterintuitive that a banged-up Detroit secondary would handle more WRs better than more TEs, the first two weeks strongly disprove that notion. It makes for cleaner coverage packages, notably with an undersized slot like Roger McCreary. The Jets’ WR room is solid, but it also is one that won’t force the Lions to spend a lot of pre-snap time figuring out matchups. That can only help Kelvin Sheppard’s unit.
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What worries me about the Jets
For a team that won just 8 games in the prior two seasons, there is more talent on the Jets roster than you might think. It’s a well-conceived build, too; the trenches on both sides of the ball are solid and young. Defensively, no team has allowed fewer yards through the first two games of 2026 than the Jets. Sure, they’ve played what look like bad offenses in Tennessee and Green Bay, but that’s still an impressive feat.
More to the point for Detroit, the Jets defense doesn’t give up big plays. Only Seattle has allowed fewer 20-plus yard gains through the first two weeks. It’s due to a combination of a swift middle-of-field defense and a secondary that reflects Aaron Glenn’s emphasis on being assertive and physical in run defense. Rookie pass rusher David Bailey has been inconsistent, but his flashes have produced two sacks and a healthy dose of quick pressures. While they have indeed faced significantly weaker attacks than what Detroit will throw at them, there is a confidence of accomplishment to this New York defense that should not be discounted.
On offense, the Jets have intriguing weapons. Yeah, really. Garrett Wilson and AD Mitchell are a pretty impressive, and fast, 1-2 punch at wide receiver. One-time Lion Isaiah Williams is coming off his best NFL game (6 catches on 6 targets, 34 yards) as New York’s primary slot WR. Rookie TE Kenyon Sadiq hasn’t seen the ball a lot, but he’s a matchup dictator with seam-stretching speed. The Lions LBs and safeties have really struggled communicating and coordinating in zone, and Sadiq is exactly the type of size/speed weapon that can exploit it. Smith isn’t afraid to force the issue if he senses a mismatch, for better or worse. Being a Lions fan requires understanding that the “worse” can always happen to Detroit, especially in Detroit against this struggling secondary.
Final score prediction
The Jets are definitely an improved team, and Aaron Glenn has them playing harder and smarter than a year ago. Still, the Lions are better at every position group on both sides of the ball except defensive back. The gaps aren’t as big as many fans probably expect, but they’re still solidly tilting in Detroit’s favor in Ford Field.
Lions 31, Jets 23
