Week 4 sees the Lions head to Charlotte to play the Carolina Panthers as the calendar flips to October. Detroit is 2-1 and squares off in a catfight with the 1-2 hosts. The Lions are road favorites to knock off the defending NFC South champs, who gave up 59 points to Chicago in Week 1 but just 3 to Atlanta in Week 2 before a 21-18 loss in Cleveland last week.
Why I think the Lions will win
The Drew Petzing offense is humming along nicely after three weeks. Other than some slow starts, Detroit’s Goffense is doing many of the same things that it did in the Ben Johnson heyday. Route combinations, operating different plays from the same formations, setting up explosive runs for Jahmyr Gibbs, giving Jared Goff ample time to find the best target on each play. The O-line played as well in the Week 3 win over New York as it’s played since Frank Ragnow was at center, and all five starters are healthy again.
Carolina’s injuries make an unfortunate timing for the Panthers. They placed both starting CBs, Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson, on I.R. this week. Horn and Jackson are quietly one of the better outside CB tandems in the league, an easy top-10 combo. Now they’ll send out practice squad elevations to cover Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Gibbs out of the backfield. Projected starting EDGE Nic Scourton was lost for the year in training camp, too.
The Panthers also lost their best offensive lineman, Damien Lewis. The left guard was the only Panthers OL who would start in Detroit, and he’s out. Keep in mind they’re already without both starting tackles in Taylor Moton and Ikem Ekwonu. Rookie Monroe Freeling has struggled a bit with the strength of the NFL game at right tackle and hasn’t practiced all week with a concussion. He draws Aidan Hutchinson this week. Starting WR Xavier Leggette hit IR this week, and their best receiver, big slot Jalen Coker, has been battling injuries all season and isn’t expected to play.
What scares me about the Panthers
Derrick Brown in the middle of the Carolina defensive line is a wrecking ball. He is, effectively, what the Lions want Alim McNeill to be on a more consistent basis. Brown wins 1-on-1s and creates havoc that benefits everyone around him.
Carolina does have a decent pair of EDGEs in Jaelen Phillips and Princely Umanmielen, though the latter doesn’t play as much as Patrick Jones. Phillips was someone many a Lions fan demanded GM Brad Holmes trade for during last season, when the Dolphins eventually shipped him to the Eagles. He’s a legit No. 1 pass rusher. Umanmielen nicely fills the role Al-Quadin Muhammad played in Detroit, a finisher who maximizes his athletic ability. Devin Lloyd is back in the middle after missing a week, too. He’s one of the best all-around off-ball LBs in the league, and his game in Carolina’s loss to Cleveland in Week 2 might be the best one any LB posts all season.
On offense, Bryce Young does, in fact, lead the NFL in passing yards per game. It gets an asterisk because of the Bears matchup in Week 1. Chuba Hubbard is a solid, consistent power runner who averages 4.9 yards on 1st-and-10 runs. By way of comparison, Gibbs averages just 4.3. That sets up Carolina’s offense to attack on 2nd-and-short, and Young has his moments with aggression, averaging an aDot (average depth of target) over 10 yards. That’s been with a full complement of receivers and a healthier offensive line, however. Big asterisk there.
The field conditions might be the equalizer Carolina needs. Reports indicate the tarp is still down after heavy rainfall in the area, and more is expected throughout Sunday. While it hits both teams in the ground game, the worry is that Goff won’t be able to have as much zip or precision with a wetter ball on a sloppy track that could impact his footing. Timing on routes could be thrown off, too. That could mean fewer explosive plays, something the Lions offense is great at creating.
Final score prediction
During the week, I forecast a 37-20 Lions win. The weather forecast has forced me to amend it. A little rain falls on the point total, but not Detroit’s chances of victory. Lions have too much on both sides of the ball for the injury-ravaged young Panthers.
Lions 30, Panthers 17
