A record morning in the NFL wide receiver market
Jackson Smith Njigba just reset the board. Seattle handed the receiver a four-year, $168.6 million extension with more than $120 million guaranteed and an average of $42.15 million per year. That is the new top of the market. The Detroit Lions feel that ripple right away. Amon Ra Saint Brown signed a four-year deal worth about $120 million with $77 million guaranteed less than two years ago. That contract now sits ninth among receivers. Timing rules this league. The salary cap climbs. Revenues climb. Prices follow.
The Detroit Lions Podcast drilled into what this means in Detroit. The front office has made a habit of striking pre-market extensions with core players. That approach has saved money as the market spikes. It does not hit every time. Injuries complicate situations for players like Decker and Kirby Joseph. Still, the strategy pays off more often than not. Jameson Williams looks friendlier on the books now than it did at signing. The receiver market ran under value for years. Calvin Johnson’s mega deal once overshot by a wide margin and then held the crown for a long time. Today the market has finally caught up.
Why timing matters for Detroit’s core
Sign early or pay more later. That was the theme. If you wait, the next contract at the same position sets a taller bar. That is why the Lions should move quickly on Jahmyr Gibbs. Get him done before Robinson signs and nudges the number higher. The first player to ink usually lands for a touch less. The second player copies it and adds a small bump. Wait too long and you also invite drama. Questions about value. Questions about commitment. That is noise the Lions do not need.
The broader NFL lesson is simple. The cap is not going down. Neither are elite position prices. Detroit has benefited by acting before the spike. Keep doing it with the right players, at the right time.
Safety talk at pick 17 and beyond
The episode also mapped out safeties across every round of the upcoming NFL draft. Safety is on the radar for the Detroit Lions at multiple points. Not a lock in the first round, but firmly in play if the board cooperates. Caleb Downs is the dream scenario at 17. If he somehow reaches that slot, he is the best player available case. The expectation, though, is that he will be gone well before the Lions are on the clock. Another first-round safety option discussed earlier makes sense too. If it is not round one, Detroit can find value later. The class offers answers on day two and day three. The board will decide, but the need and the plan are clear.
#detroitlions #lions #detroitlionspodcast #jacksonsmithandjigba #four-year #$168.6millionextension #morethan$120millionguaranteed #averageof$42.15millionperyear #topofthemarket #amonrasaintbrown #premarketextensions #kirbyjoseph #decker #jamesonwilliams
Full episode transcript
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Speaker 3: Hey, everyone. Jeff Risen here with the Daily DLP. It is Monday, March 23. Happy Oberon Day to those who celebrate. Big deal here in West Michigan. I will not be making it down to Bells today, but, I know a lot of people who do, and it's always a good time. Good sign of spring. We had, some fun stuff go on in the NFL this morning, and we're gonna lead with that. I actually was in the process of recording The Daily earlier, and the news broke. And I wanted to, interject it in. So this morning, Adam Schefter and all the news breakers, got the reports that the Seahawks are paying Jackson Smith and Jigba a new contract, a new record contract, and I wanna read it here. This is from Schefter's, post at ESPN. Jackson Smith and Jigba, the reigning NFL offensive player of the year, has reached an agreement with the Seattle Seahawks on a four year, $168,600,000 contract extension that makes them the highest paid wide receiver in NFL history. The deal averages 42,150,000 per year and includes over 120,000,000 guaranteed. Set both setting records for any wide receiver. How does this relate to the lions, you say? We are less than two years away or two years out from Amun Ra Saint Brown signing a then record setting contract. Happened the day before the twenty twenty four NFL draft in Detroit. Amanra, let's go back to this deal, signed a four year $120,100,000,000 contract extension with the Lions. 77,000,000 guaranteed. Jackson Smith and Jigba, less than two years after Saint set the bar with a 120,010,000 contract total is getting that much guaranteed. It's getting over $40,000,000 $43,000,000 more guaranteed less than two years later. Wow. The deal with Smith and Jake, but now makes Saint Brown the ninth highest paid receiver in football. We talk about this a lot. The timing of you when you enter the market matters, and this is pertains to the lines with guys like Jack Campbell and Jameer Gibbs. The price tag only goes up. One of the best things that I think that this Lions regime has done with Brad Holmes and Mike Dizner, John Dorsey, Chris Spielman at all is that they have smartly locked up their core players to premarket deals. I think we're gonna see that again. Now it hasn't always worked out like Kirby Joseph. The injuries are a problem there, and that clouds it, but the Saints a great deal now. Penny Sewell was a fantastic deal at the time that he signed it. They they got in before the price tag kept going up because, y'all, it ain't going back. The salary cap keeps going up. The revenues keep going up in the NFL. It means the contracts are gonna keep going up. So the earlier you get them done, the better. It's crazy money for Smith and Jigba. Good for him. That's that sets the bar. It also makes it nice that the lines have also locked up Jameson Williams to what seems like a more budget friendly deal in retrospect. You know, there were a lot of people that grumbled at the time that they were paying him too much, but that that there's a bit there's been a market correction on the wide receivers. They were under market value for a long time. Remember remember when the lion signed Calvin Johnson to his deal and made him the highest paid receiver in NFL history by a ridiculous amount. They overshot the market at that time by about $25,000,000, which at that point was a lot of money, capitalized. Now it's not even a year of Jackson's, but not even a year of Saint Brown. It was just crazy. But for years like, it it took a long time before Calvin Johnson was not the highest paid receiver in football. It might have even been to the end of his contract when he when he retired early. The market's catching up. The the NFL teams are figuring out that wide receivers do need to get paid more, premium ones especially. And, just interesting timing on that one. So wow. How long before Allan Ross Saint Brown wants a new contract? I don't know.
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Speaker 3: He's a great player. Got at least a couple years yet on that, but, well, life in the NFL, man. That's one of the reasons why I encourage the Lions to get Jamere Gibbs done as soon as possible. You want him signed before the Falcon sign Dijon Robinson because it's it's a game of chicken. Honestly, whoever signs first will sign for less because the the the other one's gonna sign for as Saint did, that point $01,000,000 that was on there at the end of the 01/2020, it's gonna happen with with Gibson Robinson. One of them is gonna sign first, and then the other one will sign, like, three days later for $500,000 more. That's how they do these things. It's just the the nature of the beast. You wait too long, press tag only keeps going up, or, alternatively, you risk alienating the player. Why won't you pay me? Give me what I'm worth. Am I not that important to you? You don't need that kind of drama. That's that's Las Vegas Raiders. That's New York Jets style drama. We don't need any of that crap in in Detroit. Now we'll get on with what was really gonna be the focus of the daily, which was I published this morning at the Detroit Lions podcast a list of a safety for every round of the twenty twenty six NFL draft. Lace in the series, I've done, interior offensive line, off ball linebacker, and edge so far. Move to the safeties, which is a position where I do think that the lions will have some interest at various realms that are I'm I'm not sold that they're gonna be in on the first round. The first round selection there was Dylan Thieneman. So I think Caleb Downs will be long gone. If Caleb Downs is there, he is one of those, I don't care who else is on the board. I'm taking him because he's the best player available. I have a hard time seeing the lions not seeing him as the best player available, no matter who else is there at 17. Just my guest there, but he he's a fantastic talent, and and checks a ton of boxes, but I don't think he's gonna be there. So Tieneman, who we've covered before, we've talked about him earlier, makes some sense as the first round pick. Good player, very good, very Lions appropriate style of safety. But I wanted to focus on the guys who were the next two in the in the list. And the first one is a guy that we don't talk about hardly at all and does get a lot of run-in draft circles, but probably should. That's Jalen Kilgore. And some of it is the fact that in a lot of the mock draft stimulators who's listed as a cornerback. Yo, he ain't a cornerback. He's a safety. He is a hybrid. You could label him a defensive back in the way that we talk about Brian Branch as a defensive back. But his NFL future is very much at safety. Three year starter played the spur role. The spur is it's a hybrid linebacker safety role that is primarily focused on coverage and playing in space. It's not the role that Nick Emmanourie played, although he does it very well for the Seahawks now. If you're if you're a Michigan fan, this this is the role that Jabriel Peppers played as a, you know, edge safety back at Michigan. He's done fairly well at that in the NFL, and by the way, he's still out there. Wouldn't hate him in free agency, although I don't think that the lines are gonna have a lot of market for that. We'll see. Kilgore, outstanding athlete, was a state champion long jumper in high school. It showed at the combine. He put on a show there. Game altering speed, and I I can't emphasize this enough, and it shows on his film for the Cox, Clocked it over 23 miles per hour on GPS. I talked to somebody at South Carolina. He has topped 22.5 at least seven different times. This isn't a fluke, y'all. Dude can fly, and it shows on tape. Loads of experience in the Brian Branch esque slot safety role. Talked a little bit about that. So he fits in and can play with branch, play for branch early while branch gets healthy at the beginning of the season. And then you figure out amongst them, mix and match. You could do different things. If a team goes into two tight ends on the other side, you're good there. Has ball skills, eight interceptions, 21 p d's. He looks like he played wide receiver in high school. Great at playing the ball in the air. He can high point it. He can anticipate where the receiver is going to get it. He can step in front. He's dangerous. Very good playmaker. Again, it's weird that he is not more talked about. And I think some of it with fans specifically, and I think a lot of that is because they listed as a quarterback and it was like, well, he's not one of the best cornerbacks. Like, we didn't we didn't really see his quarterback film. And some of that is and then we'll go down to the cons on here. We'll we'll actually go to the bottom one. Penalty prone grabber in man coverage when he can't match the lateral quickness. Unfortunately, that's all over his tape, and it is something where if he were matched up against Aman Ra or,
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Speaker 3: And then struggles in man coverage with receivers who can run routes well. That's Amon Roth. That's Smith and Jigba. That's Cidi Lamb. Excuse me, when he goes inside. Your craftier wide receivers who can operate inside or outside have given him a lot of trouble. Now, thankfully, there's not a a plethora of those, but as a safety role, that will be mitigated. A lot of that was from when he played corner, and he did play corner for for the Gamecocks a little bit, but primarily the spur role. But, this is where you would want him almost to be in the as a box linebacker, as your nickel backer in in that package. He is a little bit too easy to block at times. He is not, he's not shy about attacking the run. That's one of the positives there. Enthusiastic run support is a box of safety. Does have good pre stamp awareness. Does have some lower body tightness. It's not necessarily playing on train tracks, in the way that Tianeman does at times, but it's it would be nice if he had a little bit more flexibility, and could could sharpen his angles in in his breaks out of his drops, and and and stems you know, matching the stem better. But good player, I do expect that the Lions will have some interest in Jalen Kilgore. Now we'll go to the third rounder, and this is a this is a player that gets talked about a lot in the Detroit Lions podcast Patreon Slack. Very fun player to watch. Very fun player to watch. AJ Halsey from LSU. I will just I'll read what I wrote here. The well traveled Halsey stepped up in the senior season at LSU, playing more of a high safety role after more frequently being a box or slot safety during his time at both New Mexico and Houston. Only played one year at LSU. He's a throwback to the Joey Browner, Eric Turner style of the eighties and early nineties safeties, and I really do see a lot of Eric Turner in him with one important and very, very important deviation from Turner. He's just advanced. I'm gonna read off the positives here, and you can watch them if you're watching along on YouTube. Thank Thank you for liking and subscribing, or if you're, you know, on on Spotify streaming along and watching this while you're while you're working. Thank you. I'm a Spotify junkie, so get most of my podcasts there. Plays much bigger than a six foot two fifteen size, excellent pre snap recognition. The guy exudes football IQ. Just whip smart dude. It's not gonna hurt that he played at LSU with Kelvin Shepherd, with his strong LSU ties as the Lions defensive coordinator. Just gonna throw that in there a little bit. Great nose for the ball and where it's going, proven ability to align in a variety of safety positions and roles. He does have quick reactions in coverage. He he can he can bounce off from a a stop. Sees it, reacts quickly, as quickly as he can. Feisty competitor and agitator, tone setting leader on the field. I think the best way to describe that, he is the guy who will, let you know that he's tackled you. He is the guy who when he picks the ball off in front of you, will spin the ball in front of you, and we'll get in your face and let you know it. It's not CJ gun Gardner Johnson style, but it's it's trending in that direction. His last game at Houston, he actually got suspended, for starting a fight, got ejected. Avoid above average block avoidance in space. This is an area where he is better than Kilgore. Dude just senses where blocker again, football IQ is off the charts. Now we'll go to the cons. I put this in the the piece that I wrote for for for, the Detroit Lions podcast, the a safety for every round. I left it off at here because I I do think it was too harsh, but I'm gonna bring it up here. Remember Tiz Tabor? And, instantly, I like, I see y'all. I see I see you all, like, oh my god. No. No. No. No. Like, he is not that slow, but the 4.5 that he ran at the combine doesn't show on film at all. It's not there. Poor acceleration from a stop. Top end speed is below average, and he lacks a chase gear. That is straight from the scouting report back in what's that? Twenty sixteen? Still shuttering over that one. He's not fast. He does not have makeup speed. He will get beat over the top. He's not gonna help you over the top. That's just not where he's at. Even as smart and as quick to react as he is, the foot speed just isn't there. He is much more of a very undersized nickel linebacker Then he is a split safety. Does lack body control and balance at top speed. He will overshoot the point of attack. It doesn't happen often, but it is there. The other one, hitter more than a tackler. Talked about this, with Vijay Payne the other day, who was the fifth round pick. Fifth round example, and it's safety forever around the guy out of Kansas State. And then it's a pet peeve of mine. He hits with his shoulder and doesn't wrap up consistently. Halsey is better at it than Payne, but there is a lot of it where he is just going for the knockout blow and some of the shirt tackle. And that's exacerbating because he did have a shoulder injury throughout the 2025 season. He played through it. But you can tell a little bit, and it it inhibited his tackling some. So that's AJ Halsey. If you wanna make him the prospect of the day, be my guest, good player, fun player, but there's there's a very real detriment with him. We'll bring up the other guys. Fourth runner was Bud Clark from TCU. Best in class ball skills. I will give him that twitchy quick reactions. He's light, has very inconsistent eye discipline. He will suck up on play action fakes. He will chase the wrong guy on a misdirection, that sort of thing. And we'll also go for the interception instead of the sure tackle and stop. We only have ever talked about the positives about Bud Clark on this channel, and this this program. I wanted to bring up a little bit of the negatives because I do feel like he's getting a little too fluffed up. There's a reason why he is the fourth round pick, here and why he is I still think he's gonna be a fourth round pick when the NFL draft comes about. Really do. Six rounder is Cole Wisniewski, Tom Mein Snub from Texas Tech after five seasons at, North Dakota State. Lot of injuries there. You know the refrain. Brad's excited, the fact that he missed one full season with an injury, missed half of another season, and also has at least two documented concussions, which are unrelated to the injuries, that he missed time with. Six foot three, two fifteen, dude can fly. Box overhang safety. I wanted to bring up one thing about him that really stands out with Cole Wisniewski, and I love it. He has an innate ability to duck under a block or wait for the blocker to clear and then attack right behind it and get like, he does that so freaking well. I love prospects that have one, like, definable trait characteristic that sets them apart. I'll go back to when Montez Sweat was was at Auburn. And he had the the strong-arm rush, and then he could use his offhand and get off of it and, yeah, go in any direction. Like, I love those unique characteristics like that. Brian Branch actually had it as a a blitzer from the slot on a delayed blitz. Like, he would open up to the a little bit to the outside and then dart in and get pressure up. Freaking love that about Brian Branch. It's one of the reasons why I had he was my number 18 player in that draft class. I like guys with unique characteristics like that, but there are a lot of injury concerns with Wisniewski, that need to get brought up. Very good player. And the seventh rounder is Jacob Thomas from James Madison, player that I was turned on to by a fellow draft pick early in the draft process, like February. Guy, good player. Six one two twelve, former quarterback. And you can tell that he is still fairly new to playing defense, but there's a lot to like there. High football IQ, good ball skills, fun developmental style player, who could be look. Last year in the seventh round, they took Dan Jackson. He's more much more of a box safety style player. You know, closer to the line of scrimmage, the better he is. Thomas is the opposite of that. He he's a guy that can play over the top. And if you're playing single high, he needs some some polish back there, but, he can do that. Also, just brought it up with Branch, Duke can blitz from the slot. Watch their game watch James Madison's game against Louisville. He gets a sack on their quarterback where he starts out over the slot, and the slot, like, misses him because he was supposed to chip him on out and missed. And he gets to the quarterback like that. Great acceleration. That's your daily for today. Enjoy Oberon if you were so inclined. I do like it. I do like it with an orange. Like the, the Eclipse version better, but that's just me. Drink responsibly. Hope your brackets are still alive. We're the sick sweet 16 in March Madness. I still have 13 of my 16 teams, and my national championship game is still Michigan versus Houston. Still going strong there. Fingers crossed. Iowa crushed me, though. I had Florida going a ways. Hope your brackets are doing well too. It's like the fifty fifth percentile at ESPN. It is what it is. Jeff Risen signing out. Be good to one another.